Looks like I may have a future as a political pundit after all. Cho Ramaswamy's protege? Perhaps, perhaps. Don't jinx it. ;)
My amateur takeaways, in no particular order, from the poll results where Tamil Nadu has chosen to be robbed by the incumbent set of thugs for the first time in 38 years.
1. This appears more a loss for DMK than a victory for ADMK. Tamil Nadu's notorious anti-incumbency urge was not strong enough to deny Jayalalitha a second term. Memories from DMK's previous term, greed spawned by family/dynasty politics and potential for great corruption did DMK in. To make matters worse, their tie up with Congress turned out to be a big mistake - they won 8 of the 41 seats that they contested in with a paltry 6.4% vote share. (Source: wikipedia). They had to go with the Congress: the BJP wouldn't touch the DMK with, to borrow a term from my Brit colleague, a ten-foot bargepole and quite honestly, the Congress and the DMK partnered so well in UPA II to loot the nation that they had to keep each other happy to ensure that the lid remained seated firmly on their sordid affairs.
2. Imagine M Karunanidhi dying as a Chief Minister: restrained glee for MK Stalin, manufactured grief among the cadres and mild to moderate chaos across the state as the power struggle in the family unfolds. I'm so happy that this has been averted. And a grave on the Marina beach for the fossil-in-a-veshti nonagenarian will now be a tough ask with JJ at the helm.
3. BJP and their sad Tamil story continues. My secret wish was that they would win at least 5 seats in and around Coimbatore and Kanyakumari. And they drew a blank. BJP going alone in TN is a wasted effort: their flavor of Hindutva done in Hindi won't appeal to the Tamil sensibilities, their better governance notwithstanding. And development is not as big a deal in the state like elsewhere in the country. That said, I'm still willing to bet that the same people would vote for BJP in 2019, provided they are able to cobble together a good alliance. The national credibility of the BJP combined with some local flavor will be the ideal mix, although it remains to be seen who can be that ideal local partner.
4. The DMDK+ drubbing. I'm hard pressed to say anything other than, well deserved. I'm glad the people were able to see right through them and called their bluff. Granted they didn't have the might - people and money - of the big two. But all things considered, it was a rickety party and turned out to be a damp squib. And how! Captain, Thol Thirumavalavan and the communists lost spectacularly. Of particular interest is the curious case of Thol Thirumavalavan losing in a reserved constituency. The self styled voice of the Dalits shown the door! Time for introspection guys.
5. Alcohol. It was billed as the ultimate make or break issue around which this poll was supposed to turn. And everyone that had promised total prohibition - and had expected to win the female vote - ended up biting the dust. Prohibition is, at best, a knee jerk solution to the threat posed by alcohol abuse. Personally I'll bat for more control, extensive rehabilitation and increasing awareness rather than total prohibition. Going cold turkey will only facilitate a flourishing illicit liquor trade, people losing eyesight and countless deaths. And also leave that occasional drinker looking for a beer on a Friday night terribly frustrated.
6. 57% voter turn out in Chennai. That old-school indifference of the middle class rears its ugly head again. Yes, there is the age-old grievance that is unique to the middle class: what do they get in return for their vote? Pretty much nothing. So why bother. But let's not forget that the income tax one pays doesn't fetch much returns either in India. But everyone pays it nonetheless. Just like that.
7. A truly three cornered fight remains a distant dream in Tamil Nadu. The DMK is at a crossroads: MK's death will lead to some ugliness in the fight for succession. But the party would survive better given that it is only a family business and families patch up. Especially if the stakes are high. On the other hand, ADMK will flounder badly in a post-JJ world, as second tier leadership is unheard of in their set up. With PMK, MDMK, DMDK and the communists being irrelevant players, DMK will be left without a serious challenger. And that is a scary scenario. BJP, are you listening?
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