Monday, May 16, 2016

TamilNadu polls: my predictions

Since turning 18, I have exercised my franchise exactly once. I have always been living outside of India for the most part of this century and have missed all the elections since the 1999 national polls including this one.

So had I been in Chennai, instead of in the opposite side of the world, who would I have voted for?

Not for the DMK - Congress alliance. Two families of bandits with vast experience of looting the nation in most imaginative ways between them, coming together - once more - with a clean plate at the election buffet. Under the leadership of M Karunanidhi - who, if the media is to be believed, may actually be alive. A vote for them is not only forgiving their many sins of the past of varying vintages but paving the way for many more, I'm sure, in the future. And call me old fashioned but I have a thing against family/dynastic politics. Particularly if they have the fake-Gandhi and *.nidhi names. Oh and I'll also pass the opportunity to have a 93-year old three-wived, conniving fossil as a Chief Minister! And finally, remember, Congress-tainted DMK presence will do no help to pass any legislation in the parliament.

Not for the ADMK. If DMK is the devil (quite rightly), the ADMK is definitely the deep sea (again, quite rightly). As far as corruption credentials go, the DMK and ADMK are conjoined twins with two separate bank accounts. On top of corruption and sycophancy, you must throw inefficiency into the mix this time around. Cases in point: the Chennai deluge and the loss of industrial investment to the state (source: Indian Express). They may not have family baggage but with an ailing leader (officially a spinster), the sister family and the sycophants circling around and no trace of a second tier leadership worth talking about, this is a slowly ticking bomb.

Not for the PMK. Granted that they have adopted a different approach for this election: going it alone in all constituencies, announcing the CM candidate, taking an early and consistent stand on abolition of alcohol, although with no convincing plans on how to offset the loss in revenue and prevent illicit liquor problems. But I can't look past their history: after all this is still the same tree felling party playing caste politics. And the problems of La Famiglia politics hangs like a cloud over this set up too.

Not for the PWF (the miscellany) either. An LTTE sympathizer. Tired communists. The so called Dalit champion and an actor with questionable qualifications. (Reminds me of a strictly for Tamils-only Rajini clip: Oru dhaadi, oru mottai, naalu school pasanga! Ippo suthuveengalae??) An alliance of convenience with no common ideology other than the self-assumed "alternate" to the old-school Dravidian dispensations. A noble and lofty goal, no doubt, but they possess neither the cohesion nor the clout to pull of anything more than a seat or two.

That leaves us with the BJP. Forced to go alone because they couldn't stitch together a half-decent alliance in the time they had. A national party trying to be relevant in a state that cannot (and will not) follow what Mr. Modi shouts from the pulpit. Based on what they are trying to do rather clumsily in New Delhi, a vote for them is a vote for clean(er) governance and that is something that Tamil Nadu can do with now. And paint me an optimist but I nurse the hope that in the near future they could become a political force to reckon with in the state. So, yes, I would have voted for them.

Let's pretend that the readers of this blog - both of them - ask me the next question: who do I think shall win? Well, I'm no political pundit and my knowledge is gleaned from the comments section of click-bait articles on Tamil publications. But given that any pol. pun is only taking an educated guess and is as likely to get it wrong as the next guy on the street, let me throw my hat into the ring too.

For all the talk about this being a "multi-cornered" contest, this will continue to be a closely fought dog fight between ADMK and the DMK. Given that as a state we have the dubious distinction of alternating between these two sets of thieving groups, history may be smiling at the DMK this time. But Rs. 1,76,000 crores is a figure that has been tattooed on people's minds. Not an easy amount to forget or forgive, the recent flood mismanagement notwithstanding. One look at the faces of Raja and K'mozhi and those memories come flooding back and I have to watch a few Dr. Subramaniam Swamy videos on YouTube to feel better. So here is my prediction: the marginally lesser of the two evils - that's ADMK for non-Tamilians - could scrape through by a slim margin. Perhaps even with the help of BJP?

With that out of the way, I'll join the rest of the state with bated breath for the 19th. 

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